Chris Christie runs the risk of getting his New Jersey all over everything. It will be hard for him to remake the infectious image he has crafted for himself, but he must. Voters don’t mind the governor of New Jersey call people jerks and idiots, because most Americans assume New Jersey is full of them, but they don’t want their President to act that way. Christie will be incredibly strong in the northeast, but if he fails to win New Hampshire convincingly and to do it nicely, his run will be short. .
State of the Mugwumps
Actually any year in the 90s. And the last two years in the 80s. And the first eight years of the 2000s. That’s because the Mugwumps are predicting a Bush v Clinton 2016 Presidential election, the political families that ran the executive branch of the federal government for eighteen years and occupied the Governor’s mansions of Arkansas, Florida, and Texas for more than a quarter century. A lot can change in eighteen years and so can people. Just look at Barbara Bush when she entered the White House in 1989 versus today. .
For those watching / voting today we have three major races. The first two are gubernatorial races in the old dominion and the garden state, while the third is a primary all the way down in the heart of Dixie. The political implications for 2016 aren’t actually D versus R, but Tea versus T notes. The fight for the future of the Republican Party is out in the open this evening, and republicans around the country are watching tonight’s test of the Tea Party. By far the most important being in Virginia, where an establishment Democrat with a sordid history (Terry McAuliffe) runs against Virginia is for heterosexual lovers Ken Cuccinelli. A Christie blowout in blue NJ and a Cuccinelli loss in purple VA would strengthen GOP voices who believe there are two kinds of republicans: Those that want a moderate party that appeals to women and minorities, and those that want to lose.
The third race to watch is a special election run-off in deeeeeep red Alabama where the business establishment supported former-state Sen. Bradley Byrne runs against Tea Party darling Dean Young. When asked who their all-time political hero was, Byrne said Winston Churchill and Young picked Judge Roy Moore. That should tell you all you need to know.